When Should We Expect Concerts To Return? [Video]

Concerts Covid-19 Return

After a series of conflicting comments from health experts, the Music Biz team weighs in on when we feel concerts will return.

The hardest part of living in unprecedented times is that no one knows what will happen next. Two months ago, most people couldn’t believe that a then largely unknown virus would soon grind the global live music economy to a standstill. A month ago, many states were resisting shelter in place orders because they didn’t know whether or not to believe that such tactics were necessary to combat the spread of COVID-19. This week, many don’t know how they will feed their families if the current pandemic keeps businesses closed longer than the end of April.

For music fans and professionals, one of the biggest questions right now is when live music will return. Every state has a ban on large gatherings for the time being, and most have no concrete plans to allow such happenings anytime soon. Some promoters are hopeful that these guidelines will be lifted by June or July, but others are anticipating a much longer wait.

Recently, a health expert speaking to the New York Times about when and how the American economy upset people with a claim that live music may not return until Fall 2021. To be specific, bioethicist Zeke Emanuel said:

“Restarting the economy has to be done in stages, and it does have to start with more physical distancing at a work site that allows people who are at lower risk to come back. Certain kinds of construction, or manufacturing or offices, in which you can maintain six-foot distances are more reasonable to start sooner. Larger gatherings — conferences, concerts, sporting events — when people say they’re going to reschedule this conference or graduation event for October 2020, I have no idea how they think that’s a plausible possibility. I think those things will be the last to return. Realistically we’re talking fall 2021 at the earliest.

“Restaurants where you can space tables out, maybe sooner. In Hong Kong, Singapore and other places, we’re seeing resurgences when they open up and allow more activity. It’s going to be this roller coaster, up and down. The question is: When it goes up, can we do better testing and contact tracing so that we can focus on particular people and isolate them and not have to reimpose shelter-in-place for everyone as we did before?”

We understand the reasoning behind Dr. Emanuel’s claims, but after speaking with multiple industry sources, we also know how the music industry is likely to behave.

As soon as bars and other spaces where live music often occurs are allowed to open, likely with reduced capacities, live music will return. The first artists to perform will probably be DJs, local acts, and cover bands who are available at a moment’s notice. If the spread of COVID-19 continues to decline, bigger artists and shows will slowly start to return as well.

But this won’t happen all at once. Most economists agree that reopening the country will happen in steps, and guidelines will change region by region rather than nationwide. States with fewer cases of the novel coronavirus who are successfully slowing the spread will be among the first to attempt something akin to normalcy, but more impacted areas like New York and California may take much longer.

In this episode of Music Biz, host James Shotwell examines the data available and draws conclusions based on the information available to people today, April 13, 2020. Will that data change in the next week or month? Almost certainly. But for now, this is what seems most likely based on what we know.

James Shotwell