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Nine Predictions For The Music Business In 2021 [Video]

Music Business Predictions

The last twelve months were an unpredictable rollercoaster that taught us a lot about the music business. 2021 is going to be similarly wild, but we have an idea where it’s headed. Here’s what to expect.

We’ll be the first to admit that 2020 took us by surprise. There were so many twists and turns that nobody saw coming, and most of the predictions we made were wrong. We’re pretty sure it did the same to every other music and business analyst as well, so we don’t take it personally, but it did make us think long and hard before preparing the video you’re about to see.

It’s a wild time to be alive. Between the global pandemic, shuttered music venues, and a release calendar that’s far from reliable, predicting the future is a tricky proposition. Still, we couldn’t let a new year begin without taking a stab at what awaits in the months ahead.

Our music business predictions for 2021 include the return of live music, shifting release schedules, emerging release strategies, new income streams, the continuing importance of TikTok, and more. Join us as Music Biz host James Shotwell peers into his crystal ball and outlines the optimistic possibilities of a unique and exciting year.

Music business predictions found in the video above include:

The return of live music. There is no doubt that fans want to see their favorite artists again, but several things need to happen before its safe for full-scale events to return. As much as we want summer festivals to happen, the data currently available points to fall is the most likely season for concerts to return at scale. Of course, the speed of vaccinations and consumer confidence in their effectiveness will play a large role in determining the future.

TikTok remains the hub of music discovery. Another big lesson from 2020 is that TikTok reigns supreme in the world of music discovery. Both emerging talent and legacy acts can benefit from their music going viral on the popular video-sharing platform. Twitter, Facebook, Snapchat, and Instagram have failed to create a similarly beneficial tool for artists, which leads us to believe TikTok’s influence will continue well into the new year.

Guitars are cool again. After years of promoting the idea that guitar-driven music is dead, the music business is singing a different tune. The success of legacy acts such as Fleetwood Mac and OMC on TikTok is partially responsible for this outlook, as is the impressive success of Machine Gun Kelly’s latest album, Tickets To My Downfall. As the SoundCloud rap era continues to fade, guitars seem positioned for a new age of popularity, and we look forward to seeing the way emerging artists embrace the instrument in 2021.

There are a lot of new albums on the horizon. The ban on live music in response to the COVID-19 pandemic scared labels and artists of all sizes, and for good reasons. Most artists depend on touring to make money, and most record companies rely on their cut of an artist’s touring income (and the exposure concerts generate) to cover expenses. Countless releases are sitting on hard drives because the industry believes touring is an essential component to an album cycle’s monetary success. As live music resumes in 2021, we’re anticipating an avalanche of albums, singles, and EPs recorded over the past 18 months to see the light of day. That, coupled with artists working on material right now, sets up a jam-packed release calendar.

Release strategies are changing. The current backlog of new music, coupled with consumers’ increasingly short attention spans, gives the music industry a chance to move away from traditional release strategies. We’re expecting more artists to emphasize singles over records in the new year, with each track receiving a full-force promotional effort. Songs will see teasers released in advance of the full track, followed by the song premiere, song visualizer, lyric video, and the official music video, not to mention additional snippets and behind-the-scenes content. Artists will make each track an ‘event’ that may or may not build up to a proper album. The risk of releasing ten or more tracks at once only for fans to move on in a matter of weeks is too risky. 

Brand partnerships are on the rise. With touring on hold, artists and their teams have gotten creative with revenue streams. 2020 saw a record number of musicians partnering with brands of all sizes for engaging content opportunities, and we feel that trend will continue in the new year. 

More artist collaborations. Hip-hop has long understood the power of artist collaborations, but in 2021, other genres will follow suit. Much like brand partnerships, collaborations can bring together music communities to benefit artists and fans alike. More artists than ever are working on new material from home, and without live music, many have more opportunities to experiment with different sounds and ideas. Seeing more collaborations arise from this moment seems inevitable, leading to exciting new music for audiences.

Jobs are coming back, but there is a twist. One side effect of COVID-19’s impact on music was the loss of countless jobs. While some will return as vaccine distribution rises and concerts resume, others are gone forever. We see an industry hiring spree starting by summer, but considering the number of current professionals looking to replace jobs they lost and the overwhelming amount of aspiring workers, competition for each position will be at an all-time high.

We cover all of this and much more at length in the video above. Enjoy!

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How Coronavirus Is Changing The Music Business – Part 2 [VIDEO]

As the fear of COVID-19 continues to prevent live music and delay major releases, new trends are emerging as the music industry adapts to a new normal.

It’s crazy how fast life can change. Six weeks ago, Americans could not imagine spending a month indoors due to the spread of a disease no one understands. People were busy living their lives, making plans, and going through their days without giving much thought to the notion that the global economy could grind to a halt practically overnight. That was before everyone knew the term COVID-19 or coronavirus, of course, and now we’re struggling to adapt.

We recently created articles and videos addressing the immediate impact of COVID-19 on the music business. That content specifically addressed live music, which remains impossible, and the numerous delays of high-profile releases. After speaking to several industry peers we’ve learned of additional changes starting to emerge, as well as the way our (hopefully) short-term new normal could have lasting ramifications throughout the entertainment business. We choose to believe this evolutionary period is ultimately a good thing, but that doesn’t mean it will be easy.

In today’s episode of Music Biz, host James Shotwell shares more ways the coronavirus is changing the music business, as well as how those changes will impact the industry after the current pandemic ends.

Here are the trends we’re seeing unfold.

Social media: With live music at a standstill, many artists are turning to social media platforms that offer monetization tools for fan engagement, including Twitch and Patreon. As a result, Instagram and other companies are currently fast-tracking development for monetization capabilities to keep artists active.

Streaming: Keeping revenue in mind, it’s very likely that the conversation around streaming royalties will intensify as the pandemic continues to prevent live music. That debate has raged for the better part of a decade already, but with more artists, than ever depending on streaming to pay bills there is a high likelihood that musicians will band together to amplify their voice.

Release strategies: Artists should keep their current release plans, but they should consider new methods for keeping fans engaged. The traditional promotional rollout that includes 2-3 singles may not be enough. We recommend releasing more content. A lot more.

Influencer marketing: People are consuming a lot of content during quarantine, which may raise the amount of influence that content creators possess. Artists and labels alike would be wise to leverage the audience of content creators whose work aligns with their sound to raise awareness for new and upcoming releases.

Live Music: Everyone wants to know when live music will return. The truth is, nobody has an answer. The most likely scenario starts with bars and smaller venues operating at a reduced capacity while taking as many precautionary measures as possible. Big events, such as concerts taking place in arenas or stadiums, most likely will not return in full force until sometime in 2021.

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How The Coronavirus Will Change The Music Business

The coronavirus is changing life as we know it, so we are predicting what happens once life returns to something that resembles normalcy.

It is time to accept that life as we know it is changing. The current quarantine and self-isolation efforts will end, but there is no going back. The music business, as well as the world, will have to accept we are entering a new reality where everyone will apply the knowledge and experiences from this unprecedented period to everything that follows.

Where the music business goes from here is anyone’s guess, but we have some ideas about three key aspects of the industry that we wanted to share:

Live Music:

Do you miss concerts? Of course, you do! Everyone misses live music, especially those in the industry whose livelihood depends on those performances taking place. The conversation around coronavirus has been about what’s already happening, which is the cancellation and postponement of events. Those changes kickstarted a domino effect that led to instability for countless professionals and musicians alike, all of whom are unsure when they will able to see music fans again.

We don’t believe the return to live music will be fast or instantaneous. The most likely return scenario involves various regions being cleared or approved for large gatherings. Venues will host ‘soft open’ events that host a limited number of guests to generate cash as quickly as possible. Local acts and cover bands will probably be among the first to perform outside of any major metro areas.

Fans are excited about live music returning. They may also be hesitant to enter a crowded space. We now understand how people contract Covid-19, and as a result, people may think twice before returning to venues en masse. That could lead to a short-term lull in ticket sales and lower guarantees, but remember, it’s only temporary.

Recorded music:

People are, thankfully, still releasing music. That said, many artists and groups are choosing or being forced to delay their upcoming releases until the coronavirus pandemic begins to slow.

Their reasons are numerous. Some artists are unable to get the physical products they need. Others are unable to create the promotional materials they need. Still others, especially those with high-profile releases through major labels, are unable to market their releases in a manner that ensures a return on investment for those that make their career possible.

We’re predicting a massive Fall release calendar. There will be multiple delayed releases from major artists finally reaching fans at the same time as material from artists who’ve always planned on releasing in the fall. That glut of content is going to force consumers to choose between releases, both for purchase and streaming purposes. Who will survive, and what will be their sales (or, more specifically, sales-equivalents)? Only time will tell.

Music jobs:

Anyone following our job board knows there are plenty of companies hiring during this time. There is always work, and there are still people looking for talented professionals to complete that work.

There are also a lot of people in our business who are suddenly out of work. Whether that is short or longterm remains to be seen, but once live music returns, there will no doubt be a hiring spree throughout the industry. Those hoping to secure the best opportunities should use the time they have right now to refine their skills, update their resumes, and do whatever they can to position themselves for success down the line. The competition is always fierce, but the next wave of opportunities will be different.

Something else to consider is how this time is informing the way businesses will operate in the future. Many companies are learning they don’t need large offices or a massive staff to succeed. People are adapting to the current conditions, and even though they miss the quote/unquote normalcy of the past, these adaptations may last for a long time, even after ‘shelter in place’ orders are over.

For more coronavirus coverage and music industry advice, take time to subscribe to our YouTube channel!

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Industry News News

6 Music Business Predictions for 2020

What does the future hold for the music industry? No one knows for sure, but we have a few ideas of what people can expect in the new year.

The business of music is changing. The industry today looks nothing like it did in generations past, and that’s mostly a good thing. There are more opportunities than ever for exposure, more platforms to share music on, and more people than ever discovering new artists regularly. Music has always been a tool for bringing people together, but it has never done so as efficiently as it does right now.

All that said, the industry is far from perfect. The war over streaming royalties seems never-ending. The lack of diversity in festival lineups and corporate staffing is better than it has been, but still far from any sense of equality. There’s also a growing demand for content creation and fan engagement that often pulls artists away from their creative output.

To say there is room for growth in the music business is an understatement. Growth is needed, in more ways than one, if there is any hope that those starting today can have sustainable careers. We don’t know everything the future holds, but we have some guesses about what we may see happen in 2020.

Increased focus on mental health

In May 2019, Billboard ran an article about a study that found 73% of independent artists struggle with mental health issues. That post continues to circulate on music forums and Facebook Groups to this day as a problem the industry is failing to address. However, we are optimistic that 2020 will be a period for change. After losing several promising young stars to addiction and mental health struggles, the industry seems more self-aware than it has been in years about the crushing stress life in entertainment often entails. People are finally comfortable discussing mental battles, and that openness is the first step to change. How it comes and what it looks like is something we cannot know, but the demand is deafening.

What we know for sure is that many songs and videos will address these issues, as well as many panels at music conferences across the country. It will then be up to companies and individual professionals to find ways to improve the industry environment for everyone. If you have an idea, speak up! We’d love to hear from you.

Everyone has a podcast.

The podcast marketplace is booming. There are hundreds, if not thousands, of shows creating new content regularly. The art form has grown so popular that some worry the consumption of podcasts is harming the music industry.

Comedians are masters of the podcast. Virtually every major stand-up has a podcast or regularly appears on them, and the content they create is causing a surge in ticket sales. Comedians that were struggling to sell tickets for club appearances before their podcasts are now selling out theaters thanks to the audience they’ve harnessed through podcast-related content.

Musicians are starting to follow suit. Several artists have launched shows on topics that interest them, but few bands have created shows explicitly focused on their music and craft. 2020 will likely see that niche begin to populate with musicians looking for new ways to engage and develop their audience. Podcasts feel more personal than social media posts, and they allow for more depth in conversations than any social media platform. Audio, as always, is the key to success.

Niche Festivals on the rise

If you think there are too many festivals, you’re not wrong. Festivals used to be primarily confined to the period between April and September, but these days, music festivals happen all year long in virtually every state. That overcrowding the festival marketplace has led some events to shutter or take years off, to try and find a way to lure in consumers overwhelmed with options for live entertainment.

In 2020, the key to success for many festivals will be finding a niche market that is underserved by the more significant, more internationally recognized events. Too many festivals have tried to duplicate the success of Coachella or Bonnaroo by booking supersized lineups consisting of artists from all areas of music in hopes of casting a wide enough net that consumers cannot resist buying a ticket. The smarter approach is to find what genre is most popular in the area of the event and cater to it. Give rock fans the rock lineups so stacked with talent that buying a ticket is a must. Give hip-hop fans the legends they long to see, as well as the young stars going viral online. Give country music fans the artists that are played on the radio around the clock.

Festivals looking to outmaneuver the competition need to deliver something their competition cannot, and developing a diehard following from one or two areas of music is a great way to build consumer retention.

More music, less social media

Social media demands too much of modern musicians. It is hard to imagine anyone being able to consistently create content for Instagram, Facebook, Twitter, and Youtube on a daily or weekly basis. It’s even crazier to expect that level of effort from musicians who also need to be writing and recording music, as well as touring.

Musicians have spent the last decade fiercely focused on developing online followings that may or may not support their creative output. In 2020, we believe more musicians will place a priority on fans over followers. That means artists will spend less time screaming into the void on social media and more time focusing on their craft. Mailing lists will be significant, as will fan clubs. This year is a time for harnessing the power of community instead of the unreliable chatter of a following. Don’t get sucked into social media and the false sense of ego it can create. Build your audience, give them what they want, and keep going.

Increased Interest in Non-Traditional Media

Have you watched Hot Ones? Hosted by Sean Evans, Hot Ones is a series on YouTube where celebrities are interviewed while eating hot wings. It’s a simple formula that creates great viral moments while also giving viewers unique access to a person they admire. Hot Ones is a hit because there is nothing like it anywhere online, and in 2020 the demand for original promotional content is on the rise.

Traditional music blogs will never die, of course, but we’d be lying if we said they were still the best way to gain exposure as a musician. Good publicists and savvy, independent artists are now looking for unique and engaging ways to reach new fans. That means, podcasts with a specific focus, niche YouTube series, Twitch streams, and more. PR in 2020 is all about thinking outside the box.

Streaming Royalty Debate Rages On

Not so much a prediction as it is inevitable, the conversation around streaming royalties and what is considered fair compensation will rage throughout 2020. The current average of $0.006 per stream is deemed to be laughable by many industry professionals, but no clear solution or change is on the horizon. After all, how much should artists expect to make per stream when fans are paying just $10 a month to listen as much as they want?

Some argue that the best solution is higher prices, but that is an unlikely outcome. Video streaming services, such as Netflix, can demand individual prices because they offer content that is exclusive to their platform. In other words, they have something their competitors cannot provide. Music is a different story. Every music streaming service has the same music, which makes pricing a competition. The lowest price service is often the one that wins, and artists are the ones left feeling the pinch of the savings given to consumers.

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News

5 Music Industry Predictions for 2019

Everyone knows the saying, “new year, new you,” but does that mantra apply to industries as well?

The Music business is evolving at an unprecedented rate. Less than ten years ago no one knew if consumers would embrace premium streaming platforms, and Less than five years ago the idea of communicating with a speaker in your home still sounded like something from The Jetsons.

2019 is shaping up to be just as wild as any year prior. Streaming is now the most popular way to access music, but there continues to be a demand for physical product. Smart speakers are helping people consume more material than ever, yet many fear the access those products give corporations into consumers’ private lives. There’s also an entire generation of music legends embarking on farewell tours, young acts trying to establish themselves as the next big thing, and an ever-present chance that someone no one in power has ever heard of will spring to the top of the charts thanks to a viral video, meme, or song stream.

We cannot and would not pretend to know what the future holds, but there are things we feel would benefit that could easily happen in the months ahead. Here are a few:

Fan clubs are back and more beneficial than ever.

In the dark age, otherwise known as the time before social media, fan clubs were the primary way consumers stayed connected to their favorite artists. For a low fee, often paid monthly, fans were granted access to exclusive content, pre-sales, and even music.

These days everyone has access to every artist they enjoy through social media. The problem is that open access can overrun artists’ lives. Between Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter it is very easy for an artist to spend all day responding to comments and messages. The engagement is nice, but as an artist’s popularity grows (and/or they begin to age) their time becomes more and more valuable.

There’s also a problem with exposure on social media. An artist can have 10,000 fans on either platform, but the number of people who see their updates is far less. The only way to guarantee reach is through paid promotions, and many in the industry are struggling to see the point of giving money to third-party services to reach their fans.

The solution to both of these issues is fan clubs. Anyone can choose to follow an artist on social media, but those who want direct access and knowledge of new developments can do so through direct support that benefits the artist and makes it easier for music to be their sole source of income. Artists, in turn, thank fans with exclusive announcement, chats, pre-sales, new music streams, merchandise, and anything else that comes to mind. Everyone wins!

Competition for booking grows as tribute bands gain popularity.

The legends of modern music have begun to leave the spotlight. Some have died, but others are choosing to retire. In the last year alone, Paul Simon, Ozzy Osbourne, Lynyrd Skynyrd, KISS, Slayer, Bob Seger, Elton John, and George Clinton have all announced or embarked upon farewell tours. The tickets for these shows are high, often starting at $100 or more, and the demand for those tickets is great.

The solution, both for fans and venues in need of talent alike, are tribute bands. The cost to book these acts is low, which means tickets are reasonable, and the target market is old enough to ensure strong beer and liquor sales.

This winter, Live Nation has begun promoting concert series in various cities featuring numerous tribute acts. Groups are covering classic bands like AC/DC (Thunderstruck) and Van Halen (Panama), as well newer groups such as Dave Matthews Band (Trippin’ Billies), Korn (Freak On A Leash), and The Beastie Boys (Imposters In Effect). There are even tribute bands for specific eras in music, such as Saved by The 90s, emo (The Emo Band), and the 80s (Power 80s).

Tribute bands make it possible for venues of all sizes to host events promoting the biggest hits of all time for a fraction of the price demanded by the original songwriters/performers. They also make it easy for people to have a night out with live music without taking risks on artists that might not entertain them. The only real losers are original acts.

Apple Music almost catches up to Spotify.

Spotify is the reigning champ of music streaming. For the last decade, no other premium streaming platform has been able to compete with the popularity of Spotify, but that could change in 2019.

Spotify ended last year with 83 million paid subscribers, but Apple Music is coming on strong at 57 million. Apple is also growing faster, perhaps due in part to its newness compared to Spotify. With rumors of an Apple video streaming service on the horizon, the tech giant is also expected to announce several updates to its music efforts as well. At the very least it’s likely a bundle for video and audio will be offered, which may be enough to convert subscribers away from the competition.

Streaming services become news outlets.

You knew where the latest John Mayer music video premiered? Spotify. You know where the latest Halsey video premiered? Apple Music. You know where you can see musicians speaking about their upcoming release directly to consumers? Apple Music and Spotify.

Between Spotify’s efforts to introduce original video content to consumers and Apple Music’s increased focus on editorials to accompany new releases, both streaming giants seem destined to tip their toes into the world of music news in 2019.

Think about consumption for a moment. Virtually everyone is accessing music through streaming services. Blogs still host premieres, of course, but the vast majority of consumers are hearing new songs for the first time through their preferred streaming platform. With that in mind, it makes sense that those services would also consider offering tour dates and other relevant information. That could be achieved by hiring writers or through further empowering artists. Either way, value would be added.

Charts matter less and less.

Billboard charts have been considered the best way to gauge the interests of the public for the last half-century. The charts have attempted to evolve with the times, introducing new rules that consider streams as sales, but the influence they carry in the music industry has begun to wane.

The new way to gauge popularity is playlists. After all, it’s the songs topping the Spotify and Apple Music charts that inevitably decide what tops Billboard. Streaming services have up to the minute information on the pulse of music culture. They know what’s going to be popular next before anyone else, so why should we continue looking elsewhere for information we can find ourselves with a few clicks on our phone or desktop computers?

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